The Conditional Probability of Mortgage Default

Conditional Probability of Default Methodology

This paper presents the Conditional Probability of Default (CoPoD) methodology for modelling the probabilities of loan defaults (PoDs) by small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) and unlisted firms as functions of identifiable macroeconomic and financial variables. The process of modelling PoDs represents a challenging task, since the time series of PoDs usually contain few observations, thus m...

Conditional Default Probability and Density

This paper is dedicated to our friend Marek, for his birthday. Two of us know Marek since more than 20 years, when we embarked in the adventure of Mathematics for Finance. Our paths diverged, but we always kept strong ties. Thank you, Marek, for all the fruitful discussions we have had. We hope you will find some interest in this paper and the modeling of credit risk we present, and we are look...

Commercial Mortgage Workout Strategy and Conditional Default Probability: Evidence from Special Serviced CMBS Loans

This study recognizes that commercial mortgage default is not a one-step process and examines a previously unexplored aspect in the whole default process, that is the stage between the initial delinquency and default. We distinguish the servicers' behavior from the borrowers' behavior. A multinomial logit model is applied to analyze the servicers' choice of workout options and a proportional ha...

Residential Mortgage Probability of Default Models and Methods

Residential Mortgage Default

although default rates on residential mortgages have been relatively low in recent years, policymakers and economists should still be concerned about mortgage default for several reasons. First, while the foreclosure rate in the u.s. has averaged only 1 percent over the past 20 years, there have been dramatic swings in regional default rates over this period. For example, in the early 1990s for...